The World Trade Organization (WTO) says global merchandise trade grew faster than expected in 2025, boosted by strong demand for AI-related products and a surge in exports to the United States ahead of President Donald Trump’s new tariff hikes.
However, the WTO warned that the outlook for 2026 is far less optimistic as the full impact of the US tariffs begins to take effect.
In its latest global trade outlook released Tuesday, the WTO raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent, up from 0.9 percent in August, while cutting its 2026 projection from 1.8 percent to 0.5 percent.
“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world,” the organization said.
The WTO has revised its trade estimates several times this year amid uncertainty surrounding the effects of new US tariffs. Since returning to office in January, President Trump has imposed multiple rounds of tariffs, including a 10 percent baseline duty on all imports, with higher rates for certain countries.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that while the global trade system showed resilience this year, nations must not become complacent.
“Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for countries to reimagine trade and lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” she said.
The WTO also projects global GDP growth at 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.6 percent in 2026.
